The Future of Trade Issues
Fragmented and Faster-Moving
Trade Issues Committee Chair Scott Wilson and Vice-Chair George Irimescu explore potential future paths for trade issues affecting IP, identify key assumptions and blind spots, and outline signals that may indicate a shifting landscape.
Over the next three to five years, trade policy is expected to become more fragmented and faster-moving, and increasingly shaped by geopolitical considerations and bilateral negotiations rather than multilateral consensus.
For the Trade Issues Committee, this major shift presents both heightened risk and a need to reassess how to anticipate, monitor, and respond to developments that may affect intellectual property (IP) protection and enforcement.
There has been a shift away from comprehensive free trade agreements (FTAs) with transparent negotiations toward bilateral, issue-specific, and often opaque arrangements.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and protectionist measures are raising the possibility that IP may be used as a strategic or retaliatory tool rather than treated as a neutral framework supporting innovation, development, and commerce.
In the current fast-changing international landscape, the overarching goal of the Trade Issues Committee remains clear: to ensure that international trade policies and agreements adequately protect trademarks and other IP rights, while promoting fair, balanced, and predictable global trade.
The Trade Issues Committee is following the latest geopolitical trade issues that impact IP and communicating updates to our community.
Specifically, the Free Trade Agreements Subcommittee is preparing a model free trade agreement.
Moreover, the Trade Barriers Subcommittee is brainstorming a project to update the INTA community on key sanctions on a recurring basis. This Subcommittee is also structuring a position paper on the impact of tariffs on IP and monitoring the weaponization of IP.
"In this environment, IP protections risk being treated as negotiable variables rather than foundational principles or national policies."
- Scott Wilson | Spotify (USA)
The Key Shifts Likely to Shape Trade Issues This Decade
The erosion of the multilateral trading system is a key trend that has been observed over the past few years.
Institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the system of comprehensive FTAs have historically provided predictable frameworks for embedding IP protections. That predictability is weakening, with governments increasingly favoring bilateral or narrowly scoped agreements negotiated at speed and with limited stakeholder input.
Another important change is the acceleration of trade negotiations. Agreements that once unfolded over many years and several rounds of negotiations, including public consultations and civil society participation mechanisms, are now sometimes concluded within just a few months, reducing opportunities for consultation and advocacy.
This pace makes it essential for organizations working in the space to develop positions and activate communication channels before negotiations begin.
Finally, there is a growing emphasis on transactional trade policy, where concessions are exchanged rapidly and strategically, often influenced by domestic political pressures or geopolitical leverage.
In this environment, IP protections risk being treated as negotiable variables rather than foundational principles or national policies.
"[T]he overarching goal of the Trade Issues Committee remains clear: to ensure that international trade policies and agreements adequately protect trademarks and other IP rights."
- George Irimescu | Baciu Bende IP (Romania)
What Could Happen? Possible Futures for Trade and IP
A More Stable Scenario
In a more favorable future, despite geopolitical tensions, policymakers continue to recognize that robust IP protection supports economic growth and innovation.
While trade agreements may be more fragmented, core IP norms remain broadly respected.
Dispute settlement mechanisms, whether through FTAs or other frameworks, continue to function sufficiently to discourage systemic erosion of IP rights.
A Risk-Heavy Scenario
A more challenging future would see sustained fragmentation combined with increased use of trade sanctions, barriers, tariffs, and unilateral measures.
In this context, IP could be increasingly weaponized, for example, through restrictions on technology transfer, selective non-enforcement, or retaliatory measures tied to geopolitical disputes.
Some of these retaliatory measures could be imposed de facto by governments, rather than de jure, posing additional challenges for their detection, proof, and monitoring.
The weakening of dispute settlement mechanisms, particularly at the multilateral level, could further reduce incentives for governments to honor trade-related IP commitments.
Over time, this may lead to divergent national standards, reduced predictability for rights holders, and greater barriers to cross-border trade and foreign direct investment.
These developments would negatively impact global value and supply chains, where IP is a key component in many international, cross-border, and interrelated business models.
Signals to Watch
Several indicators may signal meaningful shifts in the global trade landscape, including increased use of sanctions or export controls affecting IP-intensive sectors, continued erosion of WTO dispute settlement mechanisms, the growth of noncomprehensive trade deals with IP provisions lacking transparency, selective or inconsistent enforcement of existing IP obligations, and heightened geopolitical tensions that lead to new trade barriers and retaliatory measures.
Anticipation Will Be Key
The future of trade issues affecting IP is unlikely to be defined by a single trajectory.
Instead, it will be shaped by a combination of geopolitical pressures, evolving trade practices, and the resilience, or fragility, of international institutions.
By examining possible futures, identifying blind spots, and monitoring key signals, organizations can better position themselves to navigate uncertainty. Anticipation certainly will be key, as the latest bilateral trade negotiations have occurred with unprecedented speed.
Looking ahead, the IP community should continue coordinating efforts in its engagement with governments and stakeholders involved in the new trend of trade negotiations and policies.
Power, Patents, and Politics: IP Rights in a Geopolitical World
Wednesday, May 6, 12:15 pm – 1:00 pm
In an era of shifting alliances, trade tensions, and digital sovereignty, IP is no longer just a legal asset—it’s a geopolitical lever. This session explores how global IP frameworks are being reshaped by political agendas, sanctions regimes, and regional innovation strategies.
Panelists will examine the role of patents in national security, supply chain resilience, and cross-border investment. Registrants will gain insights into how geopolitical dynamics affect patent enforcement, licensing, and portfolio management—and how IP professionals can anticipate and adapt to these forces in a volatile global landscape.
